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Quartarone, Sullivan Lead Citywide Poll

A very expensive poll was conducted in the City of Lawrence concerning this year’s mayor’s race. 400 citizens who voted in the last four city elections were asked who they would choose among all the mayoral candidates. Now, I constantly hear people say that polls don’t mean anything. If you have studied statistics or followed political elections you know that almost all of the polls conducted are accurate within the margin of error. In the last mayoral election (1997) Merrimack College conducted an exit poll that was exact to the percentage point in predicting who would win every single city office up for grabs that year. If the questions are fairly worded you can count on political polls to be a very strong indicator of where people’s feelings are at any given time. The drawback to any poll is that they are only a snapshot of how people feel at the time the poll was conducted. As time goes on, people’s perception of the candidates change and therefor the poll numbers will change.

If the mayoral election was today who would you vote for from the following list of candidates?

Margin of error is + or - 3%

Joe Quartarone - --21%
Michael Sullivan --19%
Ralph Carrero --- -14%
Jimi Carter ------- -13%
Jose Santiago ----- -06%
Nester Dejesus ---- -05%
Isabel Melendez --- -03%
Lawrence Foote ------0%
Gabriel Parent -------0%

Undecided 19%

If the final election came down to the following two individuals who would you vote for?

Margin of Error is plus or minus 4%

Mike Sullivan 34% ______Mike Sullivan 61 %
Joe Quartarone 32% ____ Jose Santiago 14%
Undecided 34% -------------Undecided 25%


Mike Sullivan 51% _____Mike Sullivan 44%
Ralph Carrero 39% ____Jimi Carter 36%
Undecided 10% ________Undecided 30%


Joe Quartarone 48% -----Joe Quartarone 34%
Jose Santiago -- 19% -----Ralph Carrero 33%
Undecided 33% ________Undecided 33%

Joe Quartarone 36%
Jimi Carter ___32%
Undecided ____32%


Of course there are a hundred pages more I could report to you on, but I think you get the picture. It looks like the two front runners today are Mike Sullivan and Joe Quartarone. If you are a Mike Sullivan supporter (Like the Tribune or Patty Dowling) you will be hoping for Jose Santiago to be the other final candidate. If you are a Joe Quartarone supporter (like the majority of neighborhood groups) you are hoping for Jose Santiago to be the other candidate in the final. If it comes down to Sullivan vs. Quartarone it will be a horse race with probably the most exciting election finish since Mary Claire beat Larry Lefebvre by 11 votes in 1993.

Remember this is only a snapshot of public opinion if the election was held today. These numbers will change as time goes on. If Concerned Citizens for Lawrence can raise enough money to conduct another poll towards the end of the summer we will release the numbers as soon as they are available.